The Ashes .. First Test Preview
November 24th 2010 11:51
Link: twitter.com/mattsaltmer
The first test of the 2010/11 Ashes Series, between Australia and England, is just 13 hours away. For an Englishmen like myself, that means all the action begins at midnight, so a late, late night is in store. The last two series in England have seen the hosts win. But every series down under in the last 24 years, have seen Australia triumph. But given the optimism surrounding England's latest attempt to win in Australia, what are their chances?
I believe the series as a whole is too close to call. But, looking at just the first test, I like England's chances. I know that any ex-pro, pundit or critic, would be quick to point out Australia's formidable record at the Brisbane ground where the first test will be staged. They have won 16, and drawn 4 of the last 20 test matches played there. However, hadn't England not beaten Australia for 75 years at Lord's, until last summer?
The fact is that so much in cricket is down to momentum, whether that is as a team, or individuals. England have been in fantastic form, in all forms of the game since winning the 2009 Ashes series 2-1. Australia, however, have been shocking, and slipped to 5th in the test rankings. England players such as Strauss, Bell, Prior, Swann and Anderson, and playing the best cricket of their careers. Besides Shane Watson, you can't say that about many of the Australian players. There is also a doubt over Michael Clarke's fitness, which would be a big blow for Australia.
So, to get a clearer picture of who should be considered favourites for this first test, let's analyse the line-ups, and see who has the edge in each position.
Opening Batsmen
England - Andrew Strauss & Alastair Cook
Australia - Shane Watson & Simon Katich
I'm giving this as 1-0 to England. Watson scores very quickly, and Katich is sold at the top of the order, but I don't see many centuries from the pair. The England skipper, Strauss, is in the form of his life. I can easily see Strauss ending the series as top run scorer, and after a century in a tour match, and in his last test match, Cook looks back in good nick. Cook could well be a deciding factor in the series.
Top Order
England - Jonathan Trott & Kevin Pietersen
Australia - Ricky Ponting & Michael Clarke
It's 1-1. Trott has been our most consistent performer at test level since coming into the side, but hasn't made a fifty on tour yet. Pietersen is potentially still our best player, but no century since March 2009, leaves me with doubts. But its not due to the England's batsmen that they've lost this point, but purely because Ponting and Clarke, are the hosts' two best players. Ponting is a legend of the game, and Clarke a legend in the making. The captain and vice captain could be crucial in the line-up.
Middle Order
England - Paul Collingwood & Ian Bell
Australia - Mike Hussey & Marcus North
This was a tough one to call, but I'm refusing to sit on the fence, and its 2-1 England. Collingwood hit a double hundred last time down under, and his composure could be key in tricky conditions. Bell looks a fine player, finally living up to his potential. Already hit a 192 on tour, needs a good series after previous Ashes disappointment. Hussey isn't as consistent as he used to be, but him and North could still grind out big runs on their day. I still fancy England's 5 and 6 to score more in this test though.
Wicket Keeper
England - Matt Prior
Australia - Brad Haddin
Ok, I'm going back on my word, I'm sitting on the fence. Just can't call this one. Prior is at his best, scoring runs and looking great with the gloves. But, Haddin is scoring runs, and looking great with the gloves. Maybe, just maybe, on form it would be Prior. But with just a sheet of paper between the two, its still just 2-1 to England.
Spinners
England - Graeme Swann
Australia - Xavier Doherty
Easiest decision of the lot, 3-1 England. Swann is the best strike bowler in world cricket right now. Ranked two in the test ICC rankings, he could be the leading wicket taker in the series. Australia have dropped Hauritz for rookie Doherty, who I can't really comment on having not seen him play. One thing on Australia's side, is that Clarke, Katich and North can all bowl some part time spin. But I'd still rather have Swann, than all of them.
Seamers
England - Stuart Broad, James Anderson & Steven Finn
Australia - Mitchell Johnson, Ben Hilfenhaus & Peter Siddle
Another tough one to call, and there are so many ifs and buts. Finn is very inexperienced, and Anderson has never performed down under. If, conditions were favourable, and all the bowlers were on form, I'd say England. But as yet, there is no proof that any of our three main seamers will be big wicket takers in the series. In the last Ashes in England, we underestimated Hilfenhaus and Siddle, and they did well. Johnson was off colour all series, and looks in a similar state of mind right now. If Johnson was in top form, I'd give Australia this point, given my doubts over the England trio's chances with the Kookaburra ball. But, its another tie I'm afraid. There are too many factors which at the moment are unclear to choose between the bowling outfits, and this could be the most intriguing, and important, battle of the test, and series.
So after bailing out and calling two contests a tie, England win 3-1 by my reckoning. This means that if Australia can edge the seamers and wicket keeper category which I couldn't call, it would be 3-3. But having now looked at the evidence, I definitely fancy England to win the first test, though the toss could be all important.
One final point, if you fancy a flutter on the first test, England can be picked up at 2-1, and the draw at 11-4. Australia are at an unappealing 11-10. By the time I've finished this post, just 12 hours to go!
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