Premier League Sack Race
September 24th 2010 18:58
Link: twitter.com/mattsaltmer
In the early stages of every season, bookies make a fortune, as punters bet on who the first Premier League manager to be sacked will be. While in the multi-million pound, media-frenzy world of top-class football, this seems completely normal, it is actually a ridiculous concept. Imagine if in the company you work for, bets were being placed on who out of you, and your colleagues, would get the sack next. But this is part of being a football manager, especially at Premier League level.
There are some managers who can effectively be ruled out of running straight away. These include Manchester United's Alex Ferguson, Arsenal's Arsene Wenger, Chelsea's Carlo Ancelotti, Tottenham's Harry Redknapp and Stoke City's Tony Pullis. Usually, Everton's David Moyes would also be part of this category of long-shots for the 'honour' of being first sacked. But given his side's shakey start in the Premier League, and League Cup exit to Brentford last week, Moyes's job isn't quite as safe as normal. But I would still fully expect all six of these managers, to still be in their respective dug-outs come the first day of next season.
Despite the league as a whole being a huge pressure-cooker, there are some jobs that are less pressured than others. Clubs like Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers, Wolves and Birmingham City, have avoiding relegation as their main target every season. With good managers and good squads at their disposals, and a top 10 finish being seen as a good season, I wouldn't expect to see Big Sam, Owen Coyle, Mick Mccarthy or Alex McCleish, be the first to get the chop. Mark Hughes has taken over a similar situation at Fulham, and after a solid start, is highly unlikely to be first to go either.
Ian Holloway and Roberto Di Matteo's jobs at newly promoted Blackpool and West Brom, would seem reasonably safe. Given the fact that they got the clubs into the Premier League, it is likely they'd avoid the sack even if there sides were relegated. They are probably the only two managers in the league with that luxury. However, given how quickly things can change in football, and that both teams are expected to struggle, they cannot be ruled out of the running.
This leaves seven managers I consider to be the main contenders. Aston Villa's Gerard Houllier is in the mix, just because he has a big act to follow after Martin O'Neill's success at the club. He is probably safe until at least Christmas though, by which point at least one other manager is bound to have already been sacked. It is similar for Roy Hodgson at Liverpool. Crashing out of the League Cup to Northampton, added to being 16th in the league, and it isn't a great start at Anfield for the experienced Englishman. Pressure is unlikely to build too quickly though, and due to this patience, I wouldn't expect him to be first, but could well be gone by the season's end.
The pre-season favourite to win the sack race, was Newcastle United boss Chris Hughton. The Magpies hotseat is seemingly a poisoned chalice, and owner Mike Ashley has proved in his 3 years in charge, that he isn't afraid of sacking managers. But after an impressive start, featuring wins over Aston Villa, Everton and Chelsea, his job now seems much safer. The biggest problem for Newcastle managers in the past, has been losing the fans backing. Hughton seems to have been accepted by the Toon faithful, but his job will never be too secure given the constant unstability at the club.
Sunderland's Steve Bruce is entering his third season at the club, and it is delivery time. Just avoiding relegation won't be enough this term, and if they are struggling come october/november, he could be the first manager to go. Roberto Mancini at Manchester City, is in a situation where despite not yet having the job for 12 monthes, it is already delivery time. A top 4 finish is a must, and if immediate success isn't achieved, the Italian could get the chop quickest.
But, the two managers I feel are most likely to get sacked first, are Avram Grant at West Ham, and Roberto Martinez at Wigan. Grant only took over at Upton Park this summer, but Gold and Sullivan are notoriously difficult to work for, and if they remain in their current position of bottom of the league, the Israeli could be gone very soon. I feel Martinez will win the race though. Wigan chairman Dave Whelan is very loyal to his managers, and will not wield the axe easily. But the Latics look weak this season, and if they are rooted in the relegation zone in a few weeks, it could be the end for the Spaniard.
It is not as obvious as in past season's which managers are most in danger, but I do think Grant and Martinez are in difficult positions. Of course, there is a chance we could go a whole season with no Premier League managers getting sacked ..... but I'm not holding my breath.
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