Premier League battle for 9th/Relegation
August 12th 2010 20:03
Throughout the end of last season and this summer, football analysts have been arguing that the 'Big Four' dominance of the English Premier Division is no more, and any one of six or seven teams could now push for the title. I agree that the gap between the league's top teams and the European candidates has been closed slightly, but the emergence of a 'Big Eight' is more realistic.
This coming season it seems unlikely that any side outside of last season's top eight will mount a serious challenge for Europe. Manchester United and Chelsea will eventually battle it out for the title after Manchester City and Arsenal fade away, Liverpool and Tottenham will chase Champions League places, while Everton are likely to overtake Aston Villa and seal 7th. But what does this leave for the other twelve teams, besides fighting relegation?
Birmingham City claimed 9th place last term off the back of promotion, and proved that there is not much between any team lower than 8th in the Premier League, and even the top Championship teams. The remaining places in the top half are likely to be contended between Stoke, Blackburn, Sunderland and Bolton, but these teams aren't exactly head and shoulders above the rest of the division. The gap between those teams and Wolves, West Ham, Fulham and Birmingham is not huge, and Newcastle, Wigan, West Brom and Blackpool will take heart from Birmingham's 9th place finish last time around. So, considering this, is just staying up success for all of these twelve teams?
I'm not suggesting that any of the newly promoted teams this year will challenge for a top ten place, and a 17th place finish would be a great achievement for any of them, especially the seemingly doomed Blackpool. But given an injury-free season and a bit of luck, any of them could finish comfortably in mid-table. The biggest challenge for Chris Hughton, Roberto Martinez and Mick Mccarthy this season will be keeping down expectations, as fans may well feel that there team is capable of finishing in the top ten, when really staving off relegation is the one and only priority for their sides.
If I had to put money on who I feel will ultimately claim 9th place, I would have to say Sunderland, for one reason, Darren Bent. Something that each of the top eight sides have, which make them the top eight, is plenty of goals. In Darren Bent, who netted 24 league goals last season, Sunderland have a man capable of scoring the goals to fire them to the brink of Europe, though top half would be success. Also with the ever improving Frazier Campbell and Danny Welbeck, he may not be relied on so heavily this season.
Potentially challengers will be Stoke, Blackburn and Bolton. All three have very tactically astute managers, who will always create a solid, hard to beat team, ultimately always leading to a safe, mid-table finish. In terms of goals, the signing of Kenwyne Jones could give Stoke an edge over their rivals, though I believe Martin Petrov's move to Bolton could be the most underrated transfer of the summer, and he could prove to be a big hit.
The dark horse's for a top half finish, are West Ham. The most un-predictable team in the league, a club who were relegated despite being littered with talented youngsters early this century, signed Tevez and Mascherano and still nearly went down again, then claimed 7th place with an average squad, you never know how their season will go. One thing is for sure, they have very ambitious chairmen, after apparently trying to sign David Beckham, Miroslav Klose and Thierry Henry at different parts of the summer. West Ham can not be ruled out of finishing 9th, but cannot be ruled out of relegation either.
But despite this battle for 9th which is sure to take place, what is to be gained besides added prize money? The unfortunate conclusion is that for 12 of the Premier League's 20 clubs, safety in the league and a good cup run, is as successful as things are going to get this season, and perhaps in years to come as well. Each of the manager's will know the weight of supporters expectations will be evident if they slip into the relegation zone, but any of the 12 clubs could be in the bottom three come may.
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